Gartner's Annual Technology Forecasts

Z/Yen's tongue-in-cheek look at Gartner's annual technology forecasts (after 2004 we lost the will to live):

Gartner Tips 2002

“The IT industry will remain challenged, facing accelerated job losses and significant vendor consolidation.”

And this prediction is completely different from all the other predictions facing other US industries (except insolvency/turnaround artists) – good thing we have key insights from Gartner.

“Safeguarding people, knowledge, systems and nations will take priority.”

No, we thought it would be better to put people at risk, eliminate knowledge, expose our systems and betray our nation – these no-nonsense, no-holds-barred nuggets of knowledge from Gartner really help me focus on crucial matters.

“Consumers will go online, finally, with the number using online account management doubling by 2005.”

So all the online consumers who fuelled the TMT bubble are going offline in order to re-register? It’s nice to know that online account management remains vague enough to double Gartners’ previous estimates.

“Short-term focus on expenses will squeeze IS organizations in 2002 as business demand for IT increases.”

Actually, no you’d be better off to blow tonnes of money on IT while your business goes bankrupt – at least you’d look different from all the other businesses saving cash by not buying Gartner reports.

“Outsourcing and trusted suppliers will take more control as capital spending reduces in favor of operating budgets.”

Hang on, we weren’t spending money on capital anyway (see above), but heck, it’s probably a good idea not to spend it on untrustworthy suppliers – thanks for the untrustworthy tip Gartner.

“Through 2004, businesses will continue to view the discipline of CRM as a critical component of corporate strategy.”

It’s good to know customers matter – great advice Gartner.

“During 2002, despite budget restraints, operational IT infrastructure will still need to anticipate and fulfill critical IT initiatives.”

Even better advice, let’s not shut down our procurement, logistics, customer and billing systems – good thing we paid thousands of bucks for that Gartner report.

“More than 50 percent of mobile applications deployed at the start of 2002 will be obsolete by the end of 2002.”

50% of nothing is still nothing – good to know that you know hype when you write it, Gartner.

“By 2004, Web services will dominate deployment of new application solutions for Fortune 2000 companies.”

Shucks, these Fortune 2000 folks are on to something, guess I’ll think about the web now – fantastic sense of timing Gartner. 

“During 2002, leading-edge businesses will exploit application integration to generate business innovation.”

Us backwards folk were disintegrating until we exploited “dis-application dis-innovation” – now we’ve got enough jargon to be a whole new Gartner report (oops, that probably means you’ll charge us thousands next year for the write-up).

Gartner Tips 2003

“IT professionals should take time in 2003 to understand business priorities and enhance their perceived value. Eight guidelines will help them build a foundation. Managers have responsibilities, too.”

Super advice Gartner. Normally, we IT types treat every business as if it’s a high street music shop. Even better, you’ve made sure we know exactly how many guidelines we need. No wonder that music shop with 7 guidelines went bust in 2002. Strange that our global investment bank didn’t with 9. Makes you wonder. Must say, I feel a bit queasy about all this responsibility stuff. Kinda pins ya down, but “you can’t always get what you waaaant…”

“Buyers of IT and IT services will need to tread carefully in 2003 as they confront resource constraints and a risky vendor landscape.”

Gosh, sounds like a jungle out there. Clearly different this year.

“Changes in business technology in the coming year will be evolutionary, not revolutionary.”

What, no tea parties?

“Most IT vendors will continue to have flat or declining revenue streams in 2003. Investors should focus on technologies that lower costs.”

To quote Sam Walton, “I was asked what I thought about the recession. I thought about it and decided not to take part.”

“IT sellers will continue to grapple, in 2003, with the changing nature of buyer demands as enterprises scrutinize the value-add of each investment.”

To quote Homer Simpson, “Doh!”. Fascinating change in the business landscape.

“In 2003, CIOs and other IS leaders must prepare for business renewal and growth while continuing to cut costs and inefficiencies.”

As opposed to? Increasing costs and inefficiencies and stagnating? This is the sort of stuff that gives horoscopes a good name.

Gartner Tips 2004

“The Modular Organization Emerges – Today’s rapidly changing business environment will compel traditional enterprises to adopt a modular organizational model so they can maintain effective service delivery and organizational agility.”

Gee, that’s strange, I work in a 100,000 employee business with absolutely no sub-units. Well spotted. I think we’ll work much better if we have slightly smaller units.

“Business Process Expertise Will Define IT Services Leaders - The underlying transition of business process outsourcing as a market for technical skills to a market for business process skills will define market competitiveness during the next two to three years.”

Gosh, I wish I understood all this predictive stuff. You guys are well ahead of me. Suspect my entire market will be determined by the success of EDS, IBM and the usual suspects. Probably not a lot for me to do but put my feet up.

“Offshore Management Challenges Spur IS Change in 2004 - Lured by short-term benefits of IT offshore outsourcing, IS organizations will learn tough lessons about managing intercontinental projects in 2004. By year end, commitments to organizational preparation and growth will crystallize.”

Offshore! I love boats too! “Commitments to organizational preparation and growth will crystallize” – I love rock candy too, intercontinental travel, intercontinental drift (we have so much in common), beaches… (and tough love)! That’s so wonderfully incisive I’ve thought about asking Santa Claus to make sure your prediction comes true. Luv and kisses.

“Real-Time Delivery to Go Mainstream by 2006 - Many technical developments are necessary before real-time infrastructures can fully support enterprisewide real-time delivery offerings.”

My dictionary was so well-used-enterprise-wide-real-time tonight that I thought I must have learnted loads. Thought by way of reciprocation (dictionaries are great, huh?) I could teach you some ’rithmetic about 2004 and 2006 (2 is the answer by the way). So you predict our real-time applications will take loads of time. By the way, what were we talking about again?

“Industrialized Nations’ Service Supplier Pricing Will Decline - IT services pricing pressure for industrialized nations’ IT suppliers will not let up, even though the macroeconomic picture looks healthier.”

Golly gee whiz, I thought people just spent more money on my IT services when they had it. It’s so great that Gartner told me not to expect folk to spend all their hard-earned cash on me when they had a few extra bucks, ’specially round this here budget panning period.

“IT Service Market Isn’t Positioned to Deliver Sustained Value - Intense emphasis on cost reduction by enterprises has dominated IT service market behaviors, which makes the market vulnerable to inevitable enterprise demands for IT innovation and paves the way for new entrants.”

Boy, I sure wish I could understand the cool, with-it jargon of you whiz-kids, but I think I get the gist. Basically, ’cause they think we’re trash, they won’t spend extra cash on any ideas we come up with. Sounds like we might as well strategically align our innovative enterprise demand behaviours with our waste management supplier.