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The Irregular Newsletter of Z/Yen Group Limited

Catch up with current projects, new ventures and see some very bad puns (Editor: bad metaphor) via Z/Yen's blog or the eagerly awaited newsletter.

To receive your copy electronically, email This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Security Forward, Risk & Intelligence Forum’s Spring Meeting was held at The Honourable Artillery Company Headquarters in the City of London on 22 March 2017. The meeting commenced with a presentation from our guest speaker Stephen Jolly, who is Executive Director of World Services at M&C Saatchi’s global behavioural change operation. Stephen was previously the UK’s Director of Defence Communications (a two star appointment at the Ministry of Defence). His presentation was entitled -British Military Influence Operations: How effective are they? Stephen gave a fascinating and extremely informative presentation covering the challenges faced by the UK and described what other countries are doing with regard to managing the media and Psychological Operations. Given his background at the centre of Government, Stephen was able to share some of his experiences with the group, who were themselves very knowledgeable. This led to a very good and informative discussion.

As we operate under the Chatham House Rule, Stephen was able to discuss his past experiences and warn of some of the possible dangers in the future. When he took questions there was a lively interactive session which extended well into the coffee break. 
We then moved on to our usual ‘round robin’ session to identify key issues in the ‘in tray’ at present. As always this gave each of the participants an opportunity to highlight their most pressing issues and to alert other members to latest developments.

We then gave the floor to our ‘Speaker in Residence’ Lt Colonel Crispin Black, MBE, MPHIL, who is an independent expert on terrorism, intelligence and security. His presentation was entitled ’The Limits of Forecasting-A Step Forward, But Then???’ Crispin argued that one of the reasons political and economic forecasters have failed to predict or even partially anticipate recent events like the financial crash of 2008 or Donald Trump’s victory in the 2016 presidential elections is that many of them are working from a set of assumptions or mental maps that are now out of date. For example, the late Harvard historian Samuel Hartington’s view that cultural differences between civilisations and religions are deep and persistent was routinely derided as madcap, if not racist, during the 1990s. With the rise of Islamist non-integration and violence in the West and elsewhere, his views are now looking like good old common sense.

Hartington’s one time student, Francis Fukuyama, propagated the view just after the demise of the Soviet Union that the battle of ideas across the world had ended-Western style democracies sustained by globalised capitalism would eventually come to occupy most of the planet. Unlike his former supervisor, Fukuyama’s arguments now look at best outdated and at worse naïve. Men and women, even within the comfortable embrace of Western civilisation, have very different views of how their countries and economies should be organised.
Finally, many of those who set the standards for public debate in the West- the political and broadcasting elites in particular, live entirely separate existences from the bulk of their fellow citizens, evolving in some cases into a specialised caste unable to understand the concerns and aspirations of ordinary people. Their inability to navigate reliably through the real world only adds to the turbulence of less likely outcomes.

Following the meeting we had drinks in the Museum of the HAC and then returned to dinner in one of our private rooms for the day. Our dinner speaker was Lt Gen Jonathon Riley, who served in the British Army for forty years and had a full and varied career, mostly abroad on active service and he held commands on operations at every level from platoon to a Corps, in Northern Ireland, Central America, the Balkans, Sierra Leone, Iraq and the Persian Gulf and Afghanistan. He was awarded a DSO for bravery and distinguished conduct in 1995 and the NATO Meritorious Service Medal in 2008. He was made an Officer of The Legion of Merit in 2004 and a companion of the Most Noble Order of the Bath in 2008. He has a PhD in Modern History and has to date published 18 books of biography and military history. He is a Visiting Professor in War Studies at  King’s College London. He gave a wonderful talk about the subject of his latest book, General Sir Anthony Farrar-Hockley and then answered questions, of which there were many. It was a great treat to listen to one General and author discussing another. All those at the dinner were given a hardback copy of the book.

As always, the networking opportunities resulted in the usual exchanging of cards and we know that many of our Members are in regular contact with each other which adds value to their Security function. Future Meetings are scheduled for the 13 July 2017, 9 October 2017, 4 December 2017 and 22 March 2018.
 

Following Ian Harris’s giving of evidence in the House of Lords EU Internal Market Sub-Committee’s report on Brexit: trade in non-financial services last autumn – click here for the Now & Z/Yen piece at that time

 

…the House of Lords report is now out!  Here is a link to the report. 

 

Here is that link to the report again.  It might not be a fun read, but it is an important contribution to the Brexit debate; timely given the expected triggering of Article 50 next week.

 

Ian once again would like to thank the hundreds of people who contacted him in the autumn and provided him with input for his evidence.  That scale of participation attracted the attention of the Chair, Lord Witty, who specifically expressed his thanks and that of the committee for that scale of input.

 

If you are a Now & Z/Yen who doesn’t tend to look at the Long Finance site, you might also/instead be interested to read Ian’s 25 year horizon piece on Brexit – click here - which Ian wrote prior to the referendum.  


Ian can be contacted on This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. 


Metaphorical Eye On The Analytical Ball?

Ian Harris addressed the Charity Finance Group conference on the subject Powerful Analytics You Can Use For Free in March 2017.  Ian’s talk was mostly an informative coaching session on the use of Excel and R to do powerful modern analytics – click that earlier link to see the slides. 

Part of the talk was an odyssey through Ian’s 30+ year career using analytical tools.  Ian was almost spitting feathers at all the expense and hard work that was needed in the past but is now unnecessary as the software is so powerful and to-all-intents-and-purposes free.

Those wanting some general training on these techniques could do worse than one of Z/Yen’s analytics courses, of course – click here for a link to our forthcoming events, which includes those amongst many other good things.

But some organisations prefer to tailor some coaching to their specific needs.  If you think you might be one of those, then best you contact Ian directly on This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.



Regular Now & Z/Yen readers are used to the idea of Michael Mainelli as a man of letters; indeed Korean and Chinese as well as English letters, since The Price of Fish, co-written with Ian Harris, went global. 

Now Michael has added French letters to his collection of multi-lingual literary feats.  L’Innovation Financière Au Service Du Climat: Les Obligations Á Impact Environnemental, co-written with Abdeldlellil Bouzidi, is an essential read for those interested in policy performance bonds; in this case environmental policy.

Michael heaps praise on his co-author, Djellil, describing writing with him as an absolute pleasure. Now & Z/Yen finds it strange that Michael has never expressed the process of writing with Ian in such terms. Djellil must have caught Michael in a rare good mood.

Michael was impressed by Google translate, which he says helped enormously to get his rusty French into vaguely editable shape. Now & Z/Yen is not so sure about the merits of on-line translation. For example, when we tried translating the term “French letters” it returned “capotes anglaises”; how can that be right?

Seriously, Michael also credits Simon Mills and Chiara von Gunten for their thoughtful and valuable input to this project.  The book is an important contribution to the emerging world of policy performance bonds as financial instruments.  Click the link if you want the book and/or contact Michael on This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. if you want to follow up on the subject business-wise.