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July 2006
Can predictive techniques inform the decisions of grant-making bodies and
thus improve their effectiveness? A research study setting out to answer
this question has concluded: yes it can.
Z/Yen, together with Cass Business School Centre for Charity Effectiveness, has
just completed a research study to trial PropheZy, a commercial application of a
support vector machine, as an anomalous grant detector. The study used
data comprising three grant programmes of The New Opportunities Fund (nof – now
part Big Lottery Fund) between 1999 and 2001, and all City Parochial Foundation
grants for 2000. Over 1800 grants were included in the study.
Three post-hoc evaluation questions were used; all questions that can reasonably
be asked of any funded project and organisation:
- Did the funded work mostly achieve its objectives?
- With the benefit of hindsight, was it the right decision to have funded
that work?
- Did you fund that organisation again or would you recommend funding it
again?
The study proved that PropheZy demonstrated statistically significant
predictive capability on The New Opportunities Fund data but not on the City
Parochial Foundation data. This reflects procedural and cultural
differences between the two funds. It also indicates that these predictive
techniques are mostly applicable to relatively large, structured grant-makers
such as Government bodies and large philanthropic foundations.
Ian Harris, Director of Z/Yen Limited, said:
“This study’s results are very exciting because they show that the
automated sifting of grant applications can identify anomalies, thus
reducing the risk of irregularities and/or increasing the effectiveness
of the grant-making programmes by targeting intervention where it is
most needed: to give grant-makers more bang for their bucks”.
Professor Jenny Harrow of Cass Business School concurs:
“Although predictive analysis is still only another tool and should
not be used as a substitute for the human element of grant-making, it
has real potential to contribute to risk-based grant-making processes”.
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The research has just been published in Strategic Change [15: (2006)]:
“Predicting the effectiveness of grant-making, Ian Harris, Michael Mainelli,
Peter Grant, Jenny Harrow”.
For further information or a more detailed summary of this research
please contact either Ian Harris (ian_harris@zyen.com) on +44
207-562-9562 or Professor Jenny Harrow (J.Harrow@city.ac.uk) on +44
207-040-8800.
Cass Business School Centre for Charity Effectiveness is
developing a research portfolio emphasising work which is primarily
problem-based and empirically oriented. It includes funded and
commissioned studies from independent policy groups, professional and
public bodies. The Centre is also active in the national and
international research networks for academic studies in non-profits. (www.centreforcharityeffectiveness.org).
(www.cass.city.ac.uk).
Z/Yen Limited specialises in risk/reward management, an
innovative approach to improving organisational performance. Z/Yen’s
clients include blue chip companies in banking, technology and
professional services as well as charities, government and care
organisations (see www.zyen.com) |
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