1	Forecasting & Achieving Sustainable Outcomes Ian Harris, Mary O’Callaghan Z/Yen Limited 18 May 2005
2	Agenda Introductions and objectives Background Decision making issues in charities Options for decision making: Traditional Emerging Case studies Next steps
3	Introduction to Z/Yen UK’s leading risk/reward management firm Most experience in: not-for-profit, technology, finance and business-to-business services Clients such as Barnardo’s, NSPCC, The National Trust, The Shaftesbury Society, Cancer Research UK, British Red Cross Society, Action for Blind People, BEN, The British Heart Foundation, Marine Stewardship Council, The Children’s Society Projects in strategy, intelligence, fundraising, governance, risk management, finance, IT Some Highlights – British Computer Society Award 2004/2005 for PropheZy and VizZy, DTI Smart Award 2003, DTI Foresight Challenge Award of £1.9M for The Financial £aboratory, Investment Banking CCC’s, IT for the Not-for-Profit Sector, Clean Business Cuisine
4	A Decision Making Conundrum Status Quo – decisions based on group consensus Rolling Stones – frequent innovations and changes T. Rex – salami slicing cuts across the board
5	Options For Improved Decision Making Traditional examples Balanced Scorecard SWOT analysis Scenario Planning Annual budgets Emerging examples Risk/reward management Programme Management Portfolio Analysis Predictive modelling
6	Traditional Vs Emerging Decision Making Traditional can be: Inflexible for different types of organisation Cumbersome to implement Process not organisation driven Reinforce existing beliefs Emerging can: Mix best elements of traditional Adapt to organisation needs Be applied lightly Generate new and unexpected options
7	Developing (And In Progress) Case Studies Using portfolio analysis to develop new strategic approach Developing predictive models to help assess grant applications Forecasting fundraising campaign success
8	Portfolio Analysis: Evidence-Based Resource Optimisation Portfolio Analysis uses scenarios to help achieve “more for less” A tool to evaluate resourcing decisions A process for you to value your work A methodology to support difficult decisions Applied in charities to: Help the management team decide where to focus strategy and resources Evaluate worth of investment decisions (e.g. new services, IT)
9	When To Use Portfolio Analysis (“You Can’t Always Get What You Want”) Sharp increase in income Sharp reduction in income Concerns about return on investment Need for a combined set of “best” services or projects
10	Portfolio Generation
11	Overall Scenario Summary
12	Client Example
13	Predict This! Multi-dimensional correlation Helps to spot patterns and identify anomalies in data Classification and prediction PropheZy makes predictive applications using readily available data, e.g., fundraising, grant applications
14	Where to PropheZy? Commercial applications include: Television audience and time predictions Managing trade execution rates (with London Stock Exchange) Reducing failed trades for major investment banks Price-your-audit tool and studies Potential charity applications: Improve assessment of grant applications Increase success rates among targets, reduce churn Identify best fundraising techniques, bid approaches or cross-sales Set targets for donor revenue, profitability, bid success, satisfaction “Fill in the blanks” on donor data
15	How – IT Architecture
16	PropheZy Model – “Cast”
17	PropheZy Predict – “Forecast”
18	Grant Making Predicting the effectiveness of grant making Joint work with CASS Centre for Charity Effectiveness Due to publish in Autumn Statistically significant predictions for a large grant making body
19	Vizzy – Anomaly Detection In Grant Applications
20	Vizzy – Anomaly Detection In Grant Applications
21	Vizzy – Anomaly Detection In Grant Applications
22	Forecasting Fundraising Campaign Success Dataset of 1 million warm donors Campaign data: type, month, year Donor profile: gender, postcode, demographic Testing: predicted against actual response rate likely value of donation
23	Real-time Charities Coping with floods of rapidly changing information Static MIS not good enough Seeking robust, general-purpose tools suitable for many datasets Moving from analytics to action
24	Closing Thoughts Don’t over emphasize the tool Scale approaches to suit your organisation Finance teams in prime position to bring in new approaches Aim to make difficult decisions more easily and improve the value of your charity’s work